Fresh Saudi Attacks Raise Risks to Global Oil Supply Routes
Published 2026-09-19
A concise data-focused look at how targeted attacks and a single strait closure can force long tanker diversions, increase voyage time and costs, and create scenario sensitivity for global crude supply.
Recent attacks attributed to Saudi operations have raised attention to global oil supply routes. For example, a single closure of a major strait can force tankers to add two to three thousand nautical miles to alternative routes.
Longer voyages increase cost and time. If a voyage lengthens by two thousand nautical miles at an average tanker speed of twelve knots, that adds roughly seven days at sea. Seven additional days means extra fuel, insurance and charter costs, and a delay that ripples through refinery schedules and inventory buffers.
Global seaborne crude trade is concentrated: small disruptions can have outsized effects. A change of one million barrels per day in available supply can move price expectations materially. To be clear, we are describing scenario sensitivity, not predicting a specific price move.
Market responses depend on time and scale. Short attacks may cause temporary route adjustments and insurance spikes. Sustained disruptions could force strategic reserve releases and longer diversions measured in thousands of nautical miles.
Analysts should quantify exposures: affected cargo volumes, extra transit days, and added insurance basis points. FXNumbers focuses on these measurable elements—numbers, distances, and days—so you can compare scenarios methodically and assess potential disruption scale with clear numeric examples for clarity.
## Watch the accompanying video
Red Sea disruptions increase oil flows around Cape of Good Hope — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php/detail.php?id=62263
IMO condemns “illegal, unjustifiable” attacks on ships in Red Sea (press briefing) — https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/imo-msc-resolution-red-sea.aspx
Oil Market Report — Market Overview (January 18, 2024) — https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/41426881-fad3-496b-9a5c-8e58f45fa45a/-18JAN2024_OilMarketReport.pdf
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4f8aRZQcuU